Russell Wilson had some huge wins over the San Francisco 49ers during his days in the NFC West with Seattle. He gets another crack at one of his bitter rivals when he leads his new club, the Denver Broncos in the Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup. And I guess it’s a good thing the Niners didn’t jettison Jimmy Garoppolo since he’s the team’s starter now that Trey Lance is done for the year. It can’t be all that bad since the Jimmy G did get his club to the NFC Championship game last season and has a .702 winning percentage in 47 lifetime starts. The Niners are a slight 1-point favorite on the NFL betting line.
The Week 3 Sunday Night Football contest between the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos will take place at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver at 8:20 p.m. ET on September 25, 2022 and will be televised on NBC.
49ers vs Broncos Odds
San Francisco 49ers -1
Denver Broncos +1
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The line has been active jumping the fence in favor of the visitors after Denver hit the board as a 3-point home favorite. Wilson and the Broncos haven’t done much offensively and the betting public took notice pounding the Niners and their staunch defense force a 4-point swing in the line. That kind of movement is nearly unheard of with no major injuries involved. Both teams have been sound defensively in the early going thus the total has also moved, falling to 44.5 after hitting the board at 46. The teams are playing for the first time since SF’s 20-14 cover win in the 2018 season.
San Francisco 49ers
Shutting down teams that were expected to have trouble scoring isn’t a big surprise. The Niners rebounded from an opening day 19-10 loss in Chicago by dominating Seattle 27-7 in Week 2 for their first win of the campaign. The defense held the Seahawks to 36 yards rushing and 216 total yards while not surrendering a touchdown. Seattle’s only score came on a return of a blocked field goal. The defense is strong enough to offset the loss of Lance, who has been ruled out for the season after a gruesome ankle injury. They’ve given up a total of 26 points cashing the UNDER in both games.
I have nothing against Lance and I was miffed by the team’s insistence to go with him as the starter. Garoppolo has done enough during the regular season winning a lot of games, but he failed when the Niners reached the Super Bowl a few seasons ago and missed more opportunities in a loss to the Rams in last season’s NFC Championship. He’s good enough to get the team there but can’t close the deal. At least Kyle Shanahan knows what he has, a QB who can manage the game while the defense does the most to win it. Garoppolo threw for 154 yards and a score with an additional TD on the ground without a turnover.
Denver Broncos
We’ll give the new arrangement time but entering the third game should be enough for Wilson to make the offense work. It was bad last week with only a pair of field goals through three quarters causing the fans at Mile High to boo. That’s what happens when expectations are raised and not seen as met. Still, the Broncos are a missed field away from being 2-0 with a different vibe surrounding them. Granted that would have been a monumental field goal from Brandon McManus, who was wide left on his 64-yard attempt in the waning seconds of a loss to Seattle.
We could give Wilson a pass on that one since returning to his old stomping grounds certainly was emotional for him. The numbers weren’t bad with 340 passing yards and a TD with 433 total yards, but failing to score a TD on four red zone trips and managing just two field goals was a killer. The red zone struggles continued last week with the Broncos failing to reach the end zone on two trips. They have four field goals and two turnovers in their six red zone visits this season. Thank goodness the defense came up large. The Broncos have allowed an average of just 243.5 yards 13 points through two games going 0-2 ATS and cashing the UNDER twice.
49ers vs Broncos Predictions
It’s hard to argue with Wilson’s success against the Niners during his career. He won 16 of 20 regular season starts while with Seattle with his 36 scoring passes the most against any opponent. He also had a key playoff win in the NFC Championship in the 2013 season. It’s safe to say the matchup has lost some vigor with Wilson now toiling for the Broncos, but he’s done things few have done against them and I expect we’ll see more of it on Sunday night.
Prediction: Denver Broncos +1 / OVER 44.5
