The LIV Golf Invitational Series struck another blow to rival tours with the addition of six new players, who will all make their debuts this week in Boston. The biggest name among the bunch is Cameron Smith, the 2022 Open champion and world’s second ranked player. And immediately Smith was installed as the betting favorite for the Saudi-backed tour’s fourth tournament. Smith is also the first golfer other than Dustin Johnson to hold that distinction, though DJ is in his usual spot atop the odds board as the second favorite.
In a bit of a twist favorites in the first three events haven’t fared all that well. The three previous winners all were in the middle tier on the odds board with Henrik Stenson at 60/1 prevailing last time out at Bedminster. Smith instantly brings more credibility to the startup golf league while the other players aren’t too shabby. Also making the transition are world No. 19 Joaquin Niemann and top-50 player Harold Varner III. Cameron Tringale, Marc Leishman and Anirban Lahiri help make this the most competitive field in the Series’ short existence.
LIV Golf Invitational Boston Odds
Cameron Smith +625
Dustin Johnson +725
Joaquin Niemann +875
Talor Gooch +1850
Paul Casey +2051
Bryson Dechambeau +2151
Brooks Koepka +2352
Abraham Ancer +2352
Harold Varner III +2451
Louis Oosthuizen +2453
Patrick Reed +2453
Sergio Garcia +2854
Matthew Wolff +3020
Jason Kokrak +3052
Marc Leishman +3252
Branden Grace +3310
Henrik Stenson +4050
Carlos Ortiz +4450
Charles Howell III +4451
Cameron Tringale +4550
Anirban Lahiri +4650
Sam Horsfield +5050
Matt Jones +5050
Kevin Na +5850
Lee Westwood +6050
Charl Schwartzel +6250
Ian Poulter +6650
Peter Uihlein +6650
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra +6650
Bernd Wiesberger +6850
Laurie Canter +7550
Odds Analysis
It isn’t a big surprise to see Smith take over as the betting favorite since he is the highest ranked player in the field and a three-time winner this season on the PGA Tour. That spot has meant very little at the outset, though, with Johnson failing to cash in from the top spot. Mid-tier players have had the most success with Charl Schwartzel and Brendan Grace, not considered household names outside South Africa, winning the first two events. A 60/1 longshot Stenson prevailed in the most recent event by two-swings over Matthew Wolff and Johnson at Bedminster.
While the gap has narrowed we still see a difference between the top half of the field and the rest of the players. Smith, Johnson and Niemann are the only three with shorter than 10/1 odds while a total of 11 players have shorter than 25/1 odds, that’s nearly a quarter of the field.
We’ve seen players in the middle third of the 48-man field have success and once again there are value picks in that range. However, this week’s roster is top heavy and even though most of them received a large signing bonus to join LIV, the competitive nature of the sport will eventually take over. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see guys like Bryson Dechambeau, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia competing for the big money first-place prize.
The Field
Now that he’s not the favorite maybe we’ll see Johnson flex his muscles. Not that he’s struggled since joining LIV, but expectations were a bit unrealistic with so many other players eyeing that $4 million payday and who didn’t get a massive bonus to play. He was in the mix last time recording his best finish of third at Bedminster after a fourth-place showing in Portland. His power and precision are ideal for The International Golf Club layout.
One player on roll is Niemann, who finished among the top-13 in each of his last three PGA Tour starts and recorded five top-10s with a win at the Genesis Invitational this season. He had a nice run through the FedExCup playoffs going T13-T8-T11. Making the move isn’t easy, but that hefty paycheck certainly helps.
In the price range of previous winners and a player who certainly took a liking to LIV golf, Carlos Ortiz has plenty of value this week. He’s been consistently good scoring 70 or better in all six rounds giving him two top-5 finishes. He was one of a few players to go 70 or lower in all three rounds at Bedminster and not surprisingly they all finished at the top of the leaderboard. I was stunned to see him priced at +4450 which has me salivating for the prospects.
LIV Golf Invitational Boston Prediction
Now that were a few tournaments into this thing I think we’ll see some of the bigger names rise to the top. Smith had a dominant season on the PGA side and is rightfully positioned as the favorite, but DJ is in a good position to earn another professional victory. His game fits the course and he’s playing well, a bad combination for the rest of the field.
