The sure thing. It is what every gambler on the planet has been looking to find. That bet or system that they know is always going to deliver the results they are looking for.
In sports betting, many have been led to believe that there is no such thing as a sure thing. No matter what system they think they have developed or found, they are not going to find that special formula that is going to give them the perfect NBA betting tips each time. That may have seemed to have been the case, but the truth is that there is a betting system that works far more often than not when you are betting on NBA games.
Betting on NBA Totals
The first NBA betting system focuses on the total point production in the game. This system is based upon a sports betting professional who found that point totals for NBA
non-conference games set by oddsmakers are usually lower than what they should be.
Allen Moody was his name, and he discovered that when a point total is set at 220, you should take the over. He found that this strategy will deliver a positive result 63.5% of the time. While not a perfect system, those are pretty good odds, making the total point production a great system for placing bets.
The Blowout Rebound
Another great system that will help you make excellent basketball betting predictions is based around what happens to a team after they have blown out their opponent in the previous contest. Many will tell you that when a team has won by 15 or more points in their previous game that they are hot and ready to blowout their next opponent. However, this is not the case.
What has been discovered is that home teams who are coming off a 15-point or more victory who are favored by more than 10 points in the next contest are only 42.5% likely to cover the spread. A lot of oddsmakers in Las Vegas and in other places will tell you that the team is likely to come up with a second huge victory, but that is simply not what the statistics show. In this case, you may want to bet on the team that is the underdog.
The Blowout Rebound 2
Choosing the NBA team that has just blown out the opponent does not look to be a smart wager. However, an NBA betting system that may work to your advantage is to choose the team that has just been blown out for their previous contest.
Those teams who were blown out in their previous game, providing a poor offensive showing, are found to surpass the projected point total 62% of the time. What this tells you is that if the Boston Celtics blew out the San Antonio Spurs by 18 points, that the San Antonio Spurs will likely surpass the point total predicted by oddsmakers in their next game. Again, not a perfect betting system, but 62% is really good.
Three-Games in Four-Days
This is a common scenario in the betting world. An NBA team plays three games in four nights, so the betting odds go against them right away. In addition, the live odds often put them at a lower point total. It is figured that fatigue will play a major role, and that the team will be unable to score a lot of points.
The statistics refute this. What has been found is that the team playing their third game in four nights is likely to exceed the projected point total nearly 59% of the time. What is discovered is that it is not the offense that struggles, but the defense. A team that is a little worn down will still take their shots and move down the court, but they will not be as aggressive defensively. That drives up the total points scored in the game and also shows that the team playing the three games exceeds expectations.
Playing Back-to-Back
One last basketball betting system we want to share is when a team is playing on back-to-back nights. The assumption is that the team who is playing on consecutive nights is destined to lose. They are more fatigued while the opponent has been better rested.
The numbers do support this, however, the rate at which teams lose is dependent upon their overall performance that season. A statistical analysis has found that teams with a winning record only lose on back-to-back nights about 5% more than their overall performance for the season. What this means is that a team with a winning record is slightly more likely to lose when playing on back-to-back nights.
For teams with losing records, they are 11% more likely to lose than they would in any other circumstance. Also, teams playing on the road for the second consecutive night are likely to lose 18% more often than they would.
While not perfect, these systems give you a place to improve your chances of winning big when betting on NBA games. They show you that the sport of basketball is a little more predictable than you may have thought.
