After coming close to winning it all last season, the goal of the Phoenix Suns was to get back to the NBA Finals and finish the deal. How they got there was irrelevant. And after losing Games 3 and 4 handily to the Dallas Mavericks in Texas, the defending Western Conference champs responded the way good teams do, protecting home court with a resounding 30-point victory on Tuesday night.
The Suns can close out the series and advance to the conference final with a road win on Thursday in Game 6. However, the team with the best road record during the regular season is just 2-3 SU and ATS in away games this postseason.
Suns vs Mavericks Date/Time (Game 6)
The NBA playoff matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks takes place on Thursday, May 12, 2022 and will air live on ESPN with tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Odds (Game 6)
Phoenix Suns -2
Dallas Mavericks +2
Over / Under 214
Playoff Analysis
A short series in the NBA playoffs is rare, especially when you get into the later rounds. So the Suns knew they were in for a battle as they look to reach their second consecutive Western Conference final. Being the best team during the regular season doesn’t guarantee playoff success. How you respond when bad things happen is a telling a factor and the Suns rebounded from back-to-back road losses with an impressive 110-80 victory in Game 5 looking more like the club that won a franchise record 64 regular season games.
Phoenix closed two of their three series last year with a Game 6 road win and knocked off New Orleans in the first round in Game 6 on the road. I’m sensing a pattern here, but the Suns will have to play better to get another road victory. They dropped the first two in Dallas and are just 2-3 in away games with the wins coming by a total of nine points.
Ask the Mavs if there’s such thing as momentum from game to game in the NBA playoffs. After getting back into the series with a pair of payout home wins, it appeared as though Dallas had all the mo. That wasn’t the case, though. Playing a solid road game for the first half, the Mavs trailed by three at the break.
While the Suns found a rhythm offensively in the third the Mavs didn’t scoring only four points in the first six minutes and getting outscored 33-14 in the frame. The Mavs had their worst offensive showing this postseason with the teams cashing the UNDER for a third straight game. The home team has won and covered in every game so far in this series with the Mavs looking to keep that streak alive.
Phoenix Suns
Claiming the No. 1 overall seed means the Suns don’t have to win a road game the entire postseason as long as they take care of business at home. That’s been the case in this series with the visitor looking for its first victory. Phoenix had the best road record going 32-9 during the regular season but hasn’t had the same success in the playoffs. The Suns’ three losses were by an average of more than 11 points.
Not having Chris Paul around for much of Game 4, the Suns lost in Dallas 111-101. Paul vowed to be better in Game 5 and from a foul standpoint he was. He committed just two personals and played nearly 35 minutes. He scored only seven points on 3 of 8 shooting, but his presence was comforting, especially for Devin Booker, who tallied 28 points on 11 of 20 shooting.
Dallas Mavericks
Winning a road playoff game isn’t easy and this series exemplifies that. To have a chance at upsetting the best team and reaching the conference final, the Mavs need to continue the trend of the home team winning every game. Things got away from Dallas in the second half of Game 5 when the offense stalled in the second half. They Mavs did a nice job in the first four games against one of the better defensive clubs averaging over 109 points, but the balanced attack that got them a pair of wins disappeared.
According to Luka Doncic, who scored 28 points on Monday, there is a solution. “In the last two games (in Dallas), our pace was very good. I think they are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They held us to 80 (in Game 5), that’s pretty impressive. We’ve got to move the ball and have better pace, play faster,” the Mavs leading scorer said. Doing that and having positive results are two different things, though.
Suns vs Mavericks Prediction
Having the best record in the league requires several things. The Suns have depth, balanced scoring and they play defense, in a nutshell that’s it. And over the course of a series those advantages take a toll. Give Dallas credit for winning a pair of games at home, but they got help from the Suns, who didn’t do the things that made them successful. With their backs against the wall the Mavs will play desperate, but in the end they aren’t as good.
Prediction: Phoenix Suns -2 and UNDER 214
