Rebounding from a tough loss in Game 3 when they felt they were wronged by a missed call from the officials, the Boston Celtics didn’t let that disappointment carry over and instead evened the Eastern Conference semifinal series with the Milwaukee Bucks and regained home court advantage with a 116-108 payout victory in Game 4.
The teams have alternated wins and losses in what’s been a tight series. The game scores don’t necessarily reflect that, but the results do. Three of the first four games were decided by at least eight points with each team recording a double-digit payout win in the first two.
Bucks vs Celtics Tip Off (Game 5)
The NBA playoff matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics takes place on Wednesday, May 11, 2022 and will air live on TNT with tip off at 7 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston.
Bucks vs Celtics Odds (Game 5)
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5
Boston Celtics -5.5
Over / Under 214.5
Odds Analysis
The defending champs are on the ropes after dropping Game 4 and losing home court advantage. But just when you think the Bucks are out of it they have a way of sneaking up on teams. They did it last year in the playoffs coming back from down 0-2 to the Suns in the Finals winning the next four, and they clinched their three Eastern Conference series on the road. So, going into a hostile environment and coming out victorious is nothing new for them.
What is new is playing without Khris Middleton, the team’s second leading scorer during the regular season. He played just two playoff games before getting hurt. And while the Bucks were able to overcome the overmatched Bulls in the first round it’s been a different story here. The Bucks are averaging 105.2 points this postseason, which is more than 10 points below their season average. That’s allowed them to cash the UNDER in eight of their nine games.
With Jayson Tatum struggling in Game 3, the Celtics still had a chance to win. That gives you a snapshot of how well things are going for them. Tatum was 4 of 19 from the field for 10 points, his lowest total in a game since the end of November. Tatum and the Celtics rebounded on Monday night matching a playoff high point total in their 116-108 victory.
Tatum scored 30 points on 11 of 24 shooting and Al Horford matched that point total making the same number of baskets on 10 fewer shots. The Cs were catching 1.5-point on the closing line and improved to 5-2-1 ATS this postseason. Boston opened as a 5.5-point favorite, which would be the largest spread in any of their playoff games this season. They are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS when laying points.
Milwaukee Bucks
It doesn’t matter how well you defend, if you can’t score you aren’t going to win games. Milwaukee has the stingiest defense in the playoffs allowing an average of 99 points, but when the defense transformed at the start of the playoffs so did the offense, and not for the better. The Bucks are too reliant on Giannis Antetokounmpo and even when he has a big game the rest of the team fails to keep up.
Giannis scored 34 points, his second-highest playoff total, in Monday’s loss, but he missed five free throws that came back to haunt the Bucks. With Middleton out Jrue Holiday is the second scoring option. He’s averaging over 18 points this postseason, but he was just 5 of 22 from the floor for 16 points on Monday. The Bucks need balanced scoring to win Game 5.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are playing good defense and they’re getting balanced scoring. In fact it’s been like that for the past few months, which is why they climbed up the NBA futures odds board. They still have to get past the defending champs, which isn’t going to be easy, but the Celtics took a big step with Monday’s road win. Boston leaned on its starters to even the series with Horford, Tatum and Marcus Smart all playing more than 41 minutes. Jaylen Brown probably would have joined them but foul trouble prevented him from logging more than the 32 minutes he played.
There was a potential blow to the lineup when Robert Williams was scratched with soreness in his knee he just had worked on. Williams missed time late in the season and into playoffs returning for the final two wins over Brooklyn. He’s a key part of the defense that led the NBA in efficiency over the final few months of the season.
Bucks vs Celtics Prediction
It’s hard to ignore what the Celtics have done over the past three months. They were a game under .500 in late January before things started to click. They are 34-9 in all games since then closing the regular season with the best record, offense and defense in that time frame. And the good times keep rolling in the playoffs. But the Bucks are the champs until someone beats them and they proved in their title run that they can win on the road. However, without Middleton the offense doesn’t have the juice.
Prediction: Boston Celtics -5.5 and UNDER 214.5
