Milwaukee got what they wanted in their Eastern Conference semifinal series with the Celtics taking home court advantage by splitting the first two games on the road. Milwaukee may have been content with their Game 1 which would explain their failure to show up for Game 2. Boston evened the series and head to Milwaukee for Saturday’s pivotal Game 3 with plenty of confidence after their 23-point win.
The 4 regular season games were decided by an average of just over 8 points, but the series so far has been much different with each team earning a double digit payout win.
Celtics vs Bucks Game 3 Date/Time
Game 3 NBA Playoff game between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will air live on ABC with tip off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 7, 2022 from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.
Celtics vs Bucks Odds (Game 3)
Spread: Boston Celtics +1.5 | Milwaukee Bucks -1.5
MoneyLine: Celtics +100 | Bucks -120
Over/Under: 212.5
Odds Analysis
The teams split 4 games and had the same record during the regular season so you’d expect a level of closeness in the series. The odds also suggest that with the Celtics laying 5-points in the opener and 4-points in Game 2 on their home floor. Well, that narrative blew up with Milwaukee winning Game 1 outright 101-98 and the Celtics following with a 109-86 triumph in Game 2.
For the Celtics to advance they’ll now have to win at least 1 game in Milwaukee, something they failed to do during the season. While they didn’t get a victory, the Celtics played tough dropping a pair of close battles by a combined 10 points while covering the closing line each time.
In fact from a betting standpoint Boston has been a money-making machine against Milwaukee going 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The last time we saw a spread lower than the 3-point line for Game 3 was back in December with the Celtics catching 1-point. Boston won outright 117-103.
You could say Milwaukee is facing adversity for the first time this postseason. They did lose Game 2 of the Bulls series at home but rallied for a convincing 30-point win in Game 3 and closed out the series with three straight victories.
Playing without second leading scorer Khris Middleton has impacted the offense. Milwaukee averaged 115.5 points during the season but have reached that number just twice in 7 playoff games while averaging just over 105 points. They do own the top defensive unit in the postseason surrendering 96.3 points per game which has allowed them to cover the UNDER in all 7 playoff games.
Boston Celtics
With Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart sidelined for Game 2, the Celtics clamped down to even the series holding the Bucks to just 3 of 18 shooting from three-point range. They also kept Giannis Antetokounmpo in check during the first half when they built a big 65-40 halftime lead. They never allowed Milwaukee to get anything going in the second half cruising to the big win.
With a few days off between games Boston are anticipating the return of Smart on Saturday. The return of Jaylen Brown would also help their quest for a win. After making 4 of 13 shots for 12 points in the opener, Brown found his stroke going 11 of 18 overall and 6 of 10 from deep for 30 points in the Game 2 onslaught.
Milwaukee Bucks
With Middleton out, Milwaukee have to spread the wealth and not rely so much on outscoring teams. They played a strong Game 1 being physical against Boston, and getting a triple-double from Antetokounmpo helped. They have to regain the intensity they displayed in the opener and forget about what happened in Game 2. I guess it would be easy to let out a heavy sigh after winning a game on the road, but Milwaukee lacked the killer instinct to get the sweep.
We expect Game 3 will be much closer than the first two. Only one game during the four regular season meetings was decided by more than 10 points and Milwaukee held Boston to less than 100 points for the first time in the last 11 meetings in Game 1. The Bucks were the best defensive club in the 2021 postseason on its way to a world title and they’ve been equally good this playoff season.
Celtics vs Bucks Predictions
Milwaukee weren’t as dominant at home this season as they were in past years, but they’ve won 6 of the last 7 games against the Celtics, including both regular season meetings. The Celtics had a plan to limit Giannis in Game 2 and for the most part it worked. Sticking to it and the return of Smart is a boost for the Celtics taking a lead in the series.
Prediction: Boston Celtics +3 and UNDER 213
