Just last September, Darren Till was an undefeated contender who entered a title fight with champion Tyron Woodley as a slight favorite. Things have changed quickly.
This Saturday, Till enters the octagon unsure of where he stands in the division. Getting absolutely schooled by the champion can put you in a weird spot. The 26-year old meets No. 10 Jorge Masvidal in a matchup that could send him tumbling out of the top 5. It’s a high risk, low reward fight for the Brit, but he’ll at least be headlining in London – where he’ll have a huge crowd behind him.
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Also on the card is fellow UK native Leon Edwards, who has been looking to make some noise as well at 170 pounds. “Rocky” meets Gunnar Nelson, a dangerous fighter in his own right. Nelson’s had his ups and downs, but he’s also flashed elite talent in his past fights. It’s plausible that either could enter the upper ranks of the division this year.
The last fight we’ll be taking a look at is a light heavyweight scrap between Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes. An undefeated uber-prospect, Dominick Reyes could become a serious player should he get past Oezdemir, who challenged DC for the title as recently as last year. With champion Jon Jones looking to stay active in 2019, the UFC needs warm bodies to throw into the cage with Bones – Reyes could be one of those dudes.
All in all, it’s a pretty solid overseas offering with some important fights. Let’s break down your best betting options, with UFC odds courtesy of BookMaker.eu.
Main Event, Welterweight
Fight odds
Darren Till -247 vs. Jorge Masvidal +191
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: check BookMaker.eu for odds
Large and in Charge
Size is a factor here: Till is a guy that’s simply too big for welterweight, and it’s likely he’ll fight at 185 pounds in the near future. Masvidal came up from 155. That’s gonna be a serious problem for “Gamebred”. Against Stephen Thompson – a guy that Till outstruck – Masvidal was forced into trying takedowns against a rangier striker, and that didn’t work. We don’t see him being able to take down the bigger Till.
So in a standup battle, let’s take a look at a few common opponents. Masvidal scored a surgical TKO of Cowboy Cerrone, operating behind a crisp Jab. Till straight up bulldozed him with powerful kicks. Against Stephen Thompson, Till held firm with better distance control, while Masvidal was stumped by the long range distance striking. We’ve got to give the advantage to Till, and oddsmakers have priced it accordingly.
Our pick: Till to win at -247
It’s hard to find any viable paths to victory for Masvidal. He’s going to have major issues trying to get in range, and he won’t be able to take this to the mat.
Plan B: Fight goes the distance
Masvidal is about as game as they come, and Till isn’t as aggressive as people think: three of his past four UFC wins have gone to decision. Unlike Cowboy, Masvidal isn’t a guy that’s easily overwhelmed.
Co-Main, Welterweight
Fight odds
Leon Edwards -180 vs. Gunnar Nelson +143
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: check BookMaker for UFC odds
Where This Goes, Nobody Knows
Unlike the main event, we really have no idea where this fight will take pace. Both guys can be effective as strikers or grapplers, and we’ve seen each of them win fights in those ways. Edwards entered the UFC as a low-output southpaw striker, winning on points. But training with Daniel Cormier and Cain Velasquez at AKA has really opened up his wrestling game. Even though Edwards doesn’t have a background in wrestling, he’s already got an excellent arsenal of trips and double-legs, and can scramble with the best of them.
Nelson is one of the better submission artists at welterweight, with 13 taps in 17 career wins. He glued himself to strikers like Albert Tumenov and Alan Jouban, completely suffocating their offensive games. But he’s also shown a tricky karate-based striking style, pulling off an awesome Lyoto Machida impression against the guys he can’t take down.
Our pick: Nelson to win at +110
Don’t expect a slugfest here: both guys are perfectly fine spending copious time probing for weaknesses. You’ll never see either guy start swanging-and-banging in desperation. The odds suggest a competitive fight, but we lean on the Icelander here. Not only does Edwards have to figure out the karate style, but Nelson also muscled up the powerful Alex Oliveira in his last fight.
Light Heavyweight
Fight odds
Volkan Oezdemir +207 vs. Dominick Reyes -267
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: check BookMaker for UFC odds
How High Can Reyes Fly?
By now, you know that the 6’4” Reyes was a former NFL prospect whose taken to MMA like a fish to water. His pure athletic skills carried him early on in his young career, but he’s progressing into a legitimate, well-rounded fighter. His last outing, a decision win against OSP, was just the second time in his career where he didn’t earn a first-round finish, and the first time he proved that he could win a tactical decision
Still, Reyes’ ceiling is rooted in his ability to notch explosive finishes, and that spells serious problems for Oezdemir. Though the Swede is the better technical kickboxer of the two, back-to-back losses have exposed some serious flaws in his game. DC ragdolled him in the clinch and exploited his lack of wrestling, while Anthony Smith snatched a come-from-behind win with an opportunistic submission.
Our pick: Oezdemir to win at +207
We know we just pointed out that Oezdemir is in treacherous territory, but hear us out. He’s the more experienced of the two, and Reyes doesn’t have the veteran tricks that DC and Smith used to put him away. In a three-round fight, we like Oezdemir’s technical striking background – especially as the underdog.
Check out the latest UFC on ESPN+ 5 betting odds.
