Two-time light heavyweight title challenger Alexander Gustafsson would love to forget the last time he fought at home in Stockton. Headlining UFC on FOX 14 in January 2015, “The Mauler” was brutally beaten senseless in front of a fired up crowd of his countrymen by Anthony “Rumble” Johnson.
It was a humiliating defeat that had Gustafsson on the verge of tears. This Saturday, he’ll get a shot at redemption in the main event of UFC Fight Night 109 in Stockholm. The Swede meets another hard hitter, Glover Teixeira, in a high stakes matchup at 205 pounds.
In the co-main event, rising light heavyweight Misha Cirkunov meets Volkan Oezdemir, who stunned contender Ovince St. Preux in a short notice UFC debut. The rest of the card is filled with solid European vets and prospects, in regards to the location of the card.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and make some Cherry Picks – betting odds with good values and probabilities – and Underdog Specials – picks that pay out more than what you put in.
Cherry Picks Record: 30-20-1
Underdog Specials: 4-2
Alexander Gustafsson (-340) vs Glover Teixeira (+270)
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -120, under -110
Common Sense Says…
Gustafsson holds nearly all the advantages in this matchup save for knockout power. And though it might be easy to remember how badly he was obliterated by Rumble, he never actually lost consciousness. It is still his only loss by TKO.
The fact of the matter is that he has never been knocked out cold, and he’s faced some very hard punchers like Jimi Manuwa and Shogun Rua.
It’s not like Teixeira is severely overmatched, but he is older, slower and shorter. This is Gustafsson’s fight to lose, but he’s a bit overpriced at -210. The play here is the over on 2.5 rounds. The only time these guys have been finished early is when they faced Rumble – and we can hardly hold that against them.
Cherry Pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -120
Volkan Oezdemir (+325) vs Misha Cirkunov (-400)
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -110, under -110
Common Sense Says…
We know a lot more about Cirkunov’s potential than Oezdemir. Cirkunov has been tabbed as one of the brightest prospects in the light heavyweight division for good reason. Already 4-0 in the UFC, Cirkunov earned stoppages in all of his octagon victories.
As for Oezdemir, he’s ranked No. 5 because of his win over Ovince St. Preux – who is more renowned than any of Cirkunov’s victims. But he really just seemed to catch OSP in a funk – and he barely eked out a win.
While Oezdemir will have the benefit of a full training camp, this is a bad matchup for him. A good striker with knockout power, he’ll be facing an opponent who thrives at making strikers uncomfortable. Cirkunov’s high-pressure style, skilled takedowns and awesome GNP should carry him to a win.
Cherry Pick: Parlay Cirkunov to win at -400
Peter Sobotta (-125) vs Ben Saunders (-105)
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -165, under +145
Common Sense Says…
Sobotta is a bit too one-dimensional to be trusted in this fine. For him to win, he’d have to take down Saunders and control him on the mat – a tough task considering how well-rounded “Killa B” is.
Though Saunders is simply a gatekeeper at this point in his career, he is one of the better ones at 170 pounds. That’s because he’s solid in every area. He’s skilled enough on the mat to avoid submissions, and his striking is far more polished than Sobotta’s. Expect Saunders to fend off takedown attempts and pick his foe apart.
Cherry Pick: Saunders to win at -105
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-250) vs Omari Akhmedov (+200)
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +145, under -165
Common Sense Says…
Alhassan’s stats cannot be ignored. 7-0 with first-round knockouts in every fight, he is a real deal blue chip prospect. In his debut, he starched Charlie Ward in less than a minute. Clearly, he’s a gifted striker with extraordinary knockout power.
The American will take a step up in competition against Omari Akhmedov, a tough Dagestani fighter who personifies so many of the fighters coming out of the region. Akhmedov is a sambo practitioner and tough, gritty fighter who is extremely difficult to put away.
It’ll be interesting to see Alhassan dragged past the first round if Akhmedov can make this ugly. Then again, Akhmedov has been punched out twice in his past three fights, and his aggressive style could make it easy for Alhassan to counter.
Underdog Special: Akhmedov to win at +200
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