2022 PGA Championship Predictions and Odds

May 18, 2022

2279

The second major of the year should be a doozy with a stacked field getting together for the PGA Championship. While most of the game’s biggest names are in Tulsa set to navigate a difficult Southern Hills Country Club track, the big news is who is not in attendance.

Phil Mickelson opted not to defend the title he won in surprising fashion last year, however hope remains for the underdogs in the field. The top of the odds board is loaded with Masters champion Scottie Scheffler sitting on top, slightly ahead of Jon Rahm with those two among seven players with shorter than 20/1 odds.

2022 PGA Championship Date

The 104th PGA Championship runs from May 19-22 at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Okla. ESPN will televise the first two rounds with CBS taking over weekend chores.

2022 PGA Championship Odds

Scottie Scheffler +1115

Jon Rahm +1215

Rory McIlroy +1350

Justin Thomas +1650

Xander Schauffele +1650

Patrick Cantlay +1815

Jordan Spieth +1915

Collin Morikawa +2151

Hideki Matsuyama +2216

Cameron Smith +2251

Viktor Hovland +2851

Dustin Johnson +3051

Will Zalatoris +3852

Shane Lowry +4050

Matthew Fitzpatrick +4050

Sam Burns +4500

Brooks Koepka +4550

Joaquin Niemann +5050

Tony Finau +5050

Cameron Young +5250

Corey Conners +6050

(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu as of May 18, 2022)

Odds Analysis

Typical of a major championship the top of the odds board is littered with the biggest names in the sport. Scheffler’s recent hot streak has him sitting on top with Rahm a close second. In all seven players are listed with shorter than 20/1 odds. And there’s a common them among them. Scheffler earned his fourth win of the season in Augusta last month with Jordan Spieth prevailing at the RBC Heritage the following week. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay teamed up to win the Zurich Classic and Rahm toppled the field in Mexico.

The best players in the world gear up for majors so it pays to stay close to the top of the odds board when picking an outright winner. Lefty was a huge underdog last year and delivered a massive payday for backers. That is the exception, though, and not the norm.

I guess if you’re looking down the odds list one player to consider is Tiger Woods. His return last month at the Masters was impressive and he is the defending champ at Southern Hills, winning the title in 2007 for his fourth career PGA Championship.

The Field

With over 150 of the best golfers in the world pegging it up this week there’s always a chance we get someone further down the odds list making a run at the title. And there are some solid value picks in the next tier of favorites. Already a two-time winner this season, Hideki Matsuyama is no stranger to the big stage winning the Masters last year. In the lead up, Matsuyama led the field at the Byron Nelson in strokes gained: approach securing a podium finish.

For some reason I keep circling back to Woods. Just playing in the Masters was a big step for him and making the cut was icing on the cake. He wasn’t in contention but I’m sure he felt like a winner. Admittedly stronger now and with a history at Southern Hills, Woods is a target for a big payoff.

You have to look at the hottest player in the game, though. Not only is Scheffler stacking wins on top of each other, he also has a history at Southern Hills. While in college he helped Texas win the Big 12 title while earning individual honors on this course. And he made headlines last week shooting a 64 in a practice round. Conditions at the time were ripe for a low score and there wasn’t the added pressure, but he still did it. And until Scheffler cools off how can you not at least consider him?

A number of players are flashing strong form heading into the tournament. Admittedly his most difficult challenge, Spieth enters the PGA off a win at the RBC Heritage and runner-up at the Byron Nelson. There’s also the motivation of the career grand slam that’ll keep him trying. We saw Rory McIlroy come up just short in his quest for the career slam last month and you never know how many more chances you get for golf immortality.

At over 7,500 yards and par-70, the Southern Hills layout is tough. Those hitting fairways at a high percentage and avoiding the numerous hazards have an edge. Schauffele fits the bill here and he’s coming off a closing 61 at the Byron Nelson giving him a boost of momentum in his search for a first major conquest. The average winning score in the previous four PGA’s here was 7-under, so don’t expect low scores.