Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the 93rd annual Academy Awards are still going to happen. So, if your “significant other” has you watching this year, you might as well make it interesting, right?
Below we’ve broken down our best bets and predictions for some of the top categories.
The 93rd annual Academy Awards (the Oscars) show, will take place at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood on April 25 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Best Picture Odds
Nomadland -550
Minari +900
Promising Young Woman +1700
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +1100
The Father +7000
Sound of Metal +7000
Judas and the Black Messiah +4000
Mank +5000
(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu. Lines last updated Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET.)
Best Picture Prediction
Likely winner: Nomadland
Could surprise: Minari or Promising Young Woman
Nomadland , about a van-dwelling drifter (Frances McDormand), has universally enthusiastic reviews from some of the fall festivals. Affection for it has grown as it won the Golden Globes’ major categories, becoming the first female-directed film to win the Globe for Best Picture — Drama. You can’t ignore that.
Minari and Promising Young Woman worked their way through the guilds to become safe second bets, in recent months, but nothing can get in the way of a Nomadland sweep at this point.
Best Actress Odds
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman-210
Frances McDormand, Nomadland +550
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday +425
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom +1100
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman +2000
(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu. Lines last updated Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET.)
Best Actress Prediction
Likely winner: Mulligan
Could surprise: McDormand
Viola Davis delivered a great performance in Netflix’s biographical drama Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but another diva’s performance in The United States vs. Billie Holiday beat out Davis’ work with a shocking upset at the Golden Globes.
It’s Carey Mulligan, however, whom has won multiple pre-Oscars victories for her career-best role in Promising Young Woman, and will also easily receive industry votes for the themes it represents. She’s also, along with Davis, Vanessa Kirby, and Frances McDormand, one of the actresses to have bagged both SAG and Globe nominations.
Day’s surprise victory at the Globes proved she’s a contender to be reckoned with — and her emotional speech at the HFPA ceremony was a monumental moment for Black women at the awards show (it has been 35 years since a Black woman won in the Drama category) — but SAG will be the deciding factor here, and it’s anyone’s game if they stray from Mulligan.
Best Actor Odds
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom -1600
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal +3300
Anthony Hopkins, The Father +1025
Steven Yeun, Minari +7500
Gary Oldman, Mank +9000
(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu. Lines last updated Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET.)
Best Actor Prediction
Likely winner: Boseman
Could surprise: Hopkins
Posthumous Oscars are rare, but not impossible. There is no better way to honor the late Chadwick Boseman than to award him with the industry’s highest acting honor. But it isn’t a sympathy vote, Boseman’s career has long been building toward an Oscar nomination, and he finally got one for his final on-screen appearance.
It’s clear the Academy loved The Father and Sound of Metal as well, so don’t count out Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins.
Best Supporting Actress Odds
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm +200
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari +130
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy +500
Olivia Colman, The Father +700
Amanda Seyfried, Mank +950
(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu. Lines last updated Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET.)
Best Supporting Actress Prediction
Likely winner: Bakalova
Could surprise: Close
This race got thrown a few curveballs after Pieces of a Woman and Mank scene-stealers Ellen Burstyn and Amanda Seyfried, respectively, were blanked by SAG. (Burstyn also missed out on a Globe nomination.)
Instead, jumping to the top of the pack is one actress who’s steadily been on the rise, the wildly funny breakout Maria Bakalova of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and another underdog, Glenn Close, the high point of the maligned Hillbilly Elegy.
Though Bakalova has had some highs (she’s shown up at every precursor awards show) and lows (she lost the Lead Actress in a Comedy Globe to Rosamund Pike) that have made us question her in the past, but industry support for Borat (it won the WGA Award and scored a PGA nod) make her feel like the only choice at the moment.
Best Supporting Actor Odds
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah -700
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 +650
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami +2500
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal +1800
LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah +2000
(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu. Lines last updated Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET.)
Best Supporting Actor Prediction
Likely winner: Kaluuya
Could surprise: Cohen
Judas and the Black Messiah — about FBI informant William O’Neal (Lakeith Stanfield) and Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya) — made a late bid for Oscar attention, and it paid off, with the film landing a Best Picture nomination as well as two nominations in Best Supporting Actor — one for Kaluuya and another surprising nod for Stanfield, whom many touted as a peripheral Best Actor contender, but got supporting nod instead.
Kaluuya’s gripping portrayal of a Black Panther leader, earned him the Golden Globe, pulling off his first major victory of the season. But with The Trial of the Chicago 7 performing better overall among the Globes and SAG, and Sacha Baron Cohen the clear choice of voters, makes us think that the Borat funnyman could sneak in a victory at SAG and change the landscape of this race.
